作者：拉金德拉・巴贾因（Rajendra Bajgain）
《喜马拉雅时报》（The Himalayan Times）发布时间：2025年7月17日
https://thehimalayantimes.com/opinion/nepali-congress-at-a-strategic-crossroads-the-urgency-of-unity-amid-emerging-threats
作者拉金德拉·巴贾因系尼泊尔大会党领导人、议会议员
尼泊尔的政治格局正发生快速变化。在此之际，长期被视为民主理念和中间派政治守护者的尼泊尔大会党（Nepali Congress，简称NC）正面临前所未有的多重挑战交织的局面。巴伦·沙阿（Balen Shah）和库尔曼·吉辛（Kulman Ghising）等新兴政治人物的崛起、民族独立党（Rastriya Swatantra Party，简称“RASWAPA”）日益增强的攻势，以及左翼力量可能形成的联合，均暴露了大会党内部存在的严重短板。
如今，尼泊尔大会党已到了需要反思、进行战略重组的时刻，而最重要的是——谢尔·巴哈杜尔·德乌帕（Sher Bahadur Deuba）、谢卡尔·科伊拉腊博士（Dr. Shekhar Koirala）以及贾甘·塔帕（Gagan Thapa）等高层领导人必须实现内部团结。若没有这种团结，大会党可能会被民粹主义、政治极化以及体制崩塌所吞噬。除非该党能提出一套有条理、有远见的替代方案，否则在选举中失利——尤其是在农村及经济薄弱地区失去支持——将成为现实。
巴伦与库尔曼的崛起：一个新的政治前沿
巴伦·沙阿（Balen Shah）与库尔曼·吉辛（Kulman Ghising）若组建新政党，可能会极大地打乱民众的政治诉求，并改变尼泊尔的权力格局。这两位人物对城市青年、专业人士以及对政治感到失望的选民具有吸引力，对传统政治势力构成了意识形态和选举层面的双重威胁。
尽管他们在行政管理上的成就和公众号召力毋庸置疑，但他们缺乏清晰的国家建设战略，这一点令人担忧。他们的言论往往带有较强的保守反动与民粹主义色彩，倾向于制造颠覆而非制定长期政策。尽管如此，他们仍在不断争取那些对腐败、政治惰性以及精英主导政治感到不满的民众的支持。简言之，每到选举季，公众似乎都能找到一个新的理由，去“最后一次被欺骗”。
共产党阵营的整合与战略性极化
尼泊尔共产党（联合马列）（UML）、毛主义中心（Maoist Centre）以及其他左翼政党若形成潜在联盟，可能会引发新一轮的政治极化。这些政党可能会借助民族主义、对联邦制的不满以及基于阶级的言论，将自身塑造为边缘化群体的捍卫者。
如果尼泊尔大会党无法提出一套可信的中间派民主替代方案，这种极化不仅会在言论层面，更会在选举层面将该党进一步推向边缘。
民族独立党的民粹主义浪潮
尽管没有任何坚实的国家建设蓝图，民族独立党（RASWAPA）仍凭借反建制形象扩大了自身影响力。该党的人气在很大程度上源于传统政党面临的公信力危机。
虽然民族独立党或许无法获得全国性领导地位，但其在摇摆选区——尤其是城市摇摆选区——的影响力可能会对尼泊尔大会党造成重大打击。
从印度得到的启示：印度人民党的纪律性 VS 印度国大党的混乱
印度就是一个近在眼前的案例。在总理纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi）的领导下，印度人民党（BJP）凭借清晰的愿景、纪律严明的组织结构以及连贯的意识形态主张巩固了权力。领导角色分工明确，即便是二线领导人也始终坚守该党的核心价值观。
另一方面，印度国民大会党（ Indian National Congress , 简称国大党(INC)）在过去十年里一直难以维持自身的影响力。拉胡尔·甘地（Rahul Gandhi）发起的“印度团结之旅”（Bharat Jodo Yatra）虽在情感上颇具感染力，却未能转化为选举优势。主要原因在于：内部派系林立，且缺乏战略连贯性。
给尼泊尔大会党的启示：仅有个人魅力而无内部凝聚力，仅有情感共鸣而无规划部署，注定会走向失败。
团结的必要性：德乌帕、谢卡尔与贾甘必须展开合作
尼泊尔大会党必须避免重蹈印度国大党的覆辙。必须搁置个人野心和党内竞争，建立集体领导机制。
资深领导人谢尔・巴哈杜尔・德乌帕已临近退休。不过，他的影响力通过其夫人阿祖・拉纳・德乌帕博士（Dr. Arzu Rana Deuba）得以延续 —— 阿祖凭借拉纳家族的背景以及在公共卫生领域的贡献，拥有重要地位。
谢卡尔·柯伊拉腊博士（Dr. Shekhar Koirala）作为受人尊敬的柯伊拉腊家族（Koirala dynasty）的继承者，既代表着传统，也象征着改革。他的父亲曾被监禁六年，母亲诺娜·阿玛（Nona Aama）作为女性政治家展现出开创性的领导力，这些都为他的政治传承增添了分量。他早年曾遭逮捕的经历，以及以人为本的行事风格，进一步巩固了他作为有原则的领导人的公信力。
贾甘·塔帕（Gagan Thapa）是2006至2007年共和运动的代表人物，如今已成为青年政治领域的核心人物。他在基层和议会中都拥有较高公信力，是尼泊尔大会党革新进程中的重要支柱。
领导力不应被视为一场零和博弈。相反，党主席、执行主席、候任总理等角色应通过战略性分配来安排，以确保既有传承延续，又能实现创新发展。
复兴框架
为有效应对当前危机，尼泊尔大会党必须采取以下措施：
1. 领导层重组：
• 谢尔·巴哈杜尔·德乌帕推动领导层平稳过渡。
• 谢卡尔·柯伊拉腊博士担任党主席。
• 贾甘·塔帕担任代理主席或总书记，重点负责青年动员和政策制定工作。
• 同时必须考虑阿祖·拉纳·德乌帕博士成为尼泊尔首位女总理的可能性。
2. 一次性团结协议：
• 三大派系同意在尼历2084年大选结束前暂停内部选举竞争。
• 实施年龄限制和过渡性领导规范，确保代际更替制度化。
3. 国家议程宣言：
• 大会党必须公布一项为期10年的国家计划，重点关注联邦和谐、教育改革、人工智能/数据驱动型经济、基础设施建设以及明确的外交政策。
• 尼泊尔必须从过时的不结盟政策转向以国家利益为基础的务实伙伴关系。
迈向2084年之路与未来领导力建设
尼历2084年（公历2027年）大选不应仅被视为一场竞争，更应被看作是一次代际权力交接。谢卡尔·柯伊拉腊博士、贾甘·塔帕以及阿祖·拉纳博士等领导人，都有望成为那个时代的总理候选人。如今正是着手准备的时刻——通过构建统一的领导层、清晰的叙事体系，以及能在各群体中赢得信任的领导风格来为未来铺路。
这还需要赋予地区领导人更多权力，确保候选人选拔过程的透明度，并通过可能的宪法修正案调整省级机构架构——以精简政府规模，强化对发展工作的聚焦。
要么适应，要么消亡
历史告诉我们，政党的垮台不仅是因为选举失利，更是因为它们无法适应人民不断变化的诉求。
尼泊尔大会党现在必须做出决定：它是想成为一个推动改革、引领国家的机构——还是仅仅沦为过去的遗迹。这个决定完全取决于该党的核心领导人：德乌帕、柯伊拉腊和塔帕。
如果他们能以谦逊的态度团结起来，辅以战略和远见，大会党仍能带领尼泊尔走向稳定繁荣的未来。如果做不到，它将成为南亚民主漫长历史中又一个引以为戒的例子。
Nepali Congress at a strategic crossroads: The urgency of unity amid emerging threats
By Rajendra Bajgain
https://thehimalayantimes.com/opinion/nepali-congress-at-a-strategic-crossroads-the-urgency-of-unity-amid-emerging-threats
Published: 01:56 pm Jul 17, 2025
Rajendra Bajgain. Nepali Congress leader and Member of Parliament
Nepal's political landscape is transforming rapidly. At such a moment, the Nepali Congress (NC)-long considered a guardian of democratic ideals and centrist politics-is confronting an unprecedented convergence of challenges. The rise of alternative political figures like Balen Shah and Kulman Ghising, the growing aggression of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RASWAPA), and the potential consolidation of leftist forces have all exposed serious vulnerabilities within Congress.
It is now time for introspection, strategic restructuring, and most importantly-internal unity among top leaders like Sher Bahadur Deuba, Dr. Shekhar Koirala, and Gagan Thapa. Without this unity, Congress risks being engulfed by populism, polarization, and institutional collapse. The loss of electoral ground, particularly in rural and economically fragile regions, is a real possibility unless the party presents an organized, visionary alternative.
The Rise of Balen and Kulman: A New Political Frontier
The potential formation of a new political party by Balen Shah and Kulman Ghising could significantly disrupt the political aspirations of the people and shift the power dynamics in Nepal. These two figures appeal to urban youth, professionals, and politically disillusioned voters, and pose both an ideological and electoral threat to traditional forces.
Although their administrative achievements and public appeal are undeniable, their lack of a clear nation-building strategy is worrisome. Their expressions tend to be more reactionary and populist, leaning toward disruption rather than long-term policy-making. Nonetheless, they continue to win over a public frustrated by corruption, inertia, and elite-driven politics. In short, each election season appears to offer the public a new excuse to be "deceived one last time."
Communist Consolidation and Strategic Polarization
The potential alliance among UML, Maoist Centre, and other leftist parties could spark renewed polarization, using nationalism, federal grievances, and class-based rhetoric to present themselves as defenders of the marginalized.
If the Nepali Congress fails to provide a credible centrist democratic alternative, this polarization could push the party further to the margins-not just rhetorically but electorally as well.
The Populist Surge of RASWAPA
Without any solid blueprint for nation-building, RASWAPA has still managed to expand its influence by leveraging an anti-establishment image. Its popularity is largely rooted in the crisis of credibility that plagues traditional parties.
Though RASWAPA may not command national leadership, its impact in swing constituencies-especially urban ones-could hurt Congress significantly.
Lessons from India: BJP's Discipline vs. INC's Disarray
India presents a nearby case study. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP has consolidated power through a clear vision, disciplined organizational structure, and a coherent ideological message. Leadership roles are well-defined, and even the second-tier leaders remain loyal to the party's core values.
On the other hand, the Indian National Congress (INC) has struggled for relevance over the past decade. Rahul Gandhi's "Bharat Jodo Yatra" was emotionally powerful but failed to translate into electoral gains. The primary reasons: internal factionalism and lack of strategic coherence.
Lesson for the Nepali Congress: Charisma without cohesion and emotion without planning are formulas for failure.
The Need for Unity: Deuba, Shekhar, and Gagan Must Cooperate
Nepali Congress must avoid repeating the mistakes of the INC. Personal ambitions and intra-party rivalries must be set aside for collective leadership.
Sher Bahadur Deuba, a seasoned leader, is nearing retirement. However, his influence continues through Dr. Arzu Rana Deuba, whose Rana heritage and contributions to public health are significant.
Dr. Shekhar Koirala, heir of the esteemed Koirala dynasty, represents both tradition and reform. His father's six-year imprisonment and mother Nona Aama's pioneering leadership as a woman politician strengthen his legacy. His early arrest and people-centered approach reinforce his credibility as a principled leader.
Gagan Thapa, a product of the 2006/07 republican movement, has become a central figure in youth politics. With strong grassroots and parliamentary credibility, he stands as a vital pillar in Congress' renewal.
Leadership should not be viewed as a zero-sum game. Rather, roles like President, Executive President, and Prime Minister-in-waiting should be distributed strategically to ensure both continuity and innovation.
A Framework for Revival
To respond effectively to the current crisis, Congress must adopt the following:
1. Leadership Restructuring:
• Sher Bahadur Deuba facilitates a smooth leadership transition.
• Dr. Shekhar Koirala becomes party president.
• Gagan Thapa takes on the role of Acting President or General Secretary, focusing on youth mobilization and policy development.
• Dr. Arzu Rana Deuba's potential as Nepal's first female Prime Minister must also be considered.
2. One-Time Unity Pact:
• All three factions agree to suspend internal electoral competition until after the 2084 General Election.
• Age limits and transitional leadership norms are implemented to ensure institutionalized generational change.
3. National Agenda Declaration:
• Congress must unveil a 10-year national plan focusing on federal harmony, education reform, AI/data-driven economy, infrastructure development, and a clarified foreign policy.
• Nepal must shift from outdated non-alignment toward pragmatic partnerships grounded in national interest.
Path to 2084 and Building Future Leadership
The 2084 General Election must be seen as a generational handover, not just a contest. Leaders like Dr. Shekhar Koirala, Gagan Thapa, and Dr. Arzu Rana are all plausible Prime Ministerial candidates for that era. The time to start preparing is now-by crafting unified leadership, clear narratives, and leadership styles that inspire trust across demographics.
It also requires empowering regional leaders, ensuring transparency in candidate selection, and revamping provincial structures through possible constitutional amendments to reduce government size and enhance development focus.
Adapt or Fade Away
History teaches that political parties collapse not only because of electoral defeat but because of their failure to adapt to people's changing aspirations.
The Nepali Congress must now decide whether it wishes to be an institution of reform and national leadership-or merely a relic of the past. The decision rests squarely with its key leaders: Deuba, Koirala, and Thapa.
If they embrace unity with humility, strategy, and vision, Congress can still lead Nepal into a stable and prosperous future. If not, it will become just another cautionary tale in the long history of South Asian democracy.
NC leader Bajgain is a member of parliament
