西方不能只手遮天
【尼泊尔】帕拉苏拉姆·卡雷尔
河北经贸大学尼泊尔研究中心 吴玮 译
按：今年二月中国的民用气象科研无人飞艇偏离了预定的航线，进入美国领空，被美国和西方媒体炒作为中国的“间谍气球”，却没有检测到与谍报行为相关的仪器。尼泊尔国家英文报纸《新兴尼泊尔报》（The Rising Nepal）发表前主编帕拉苏拉姆·卡雷尔 （P. Kharel）撰写的评论文章，对此事件进行分析，认为西方不能只手遮天，美国国务卿布林肯以此为借口在最后一刻推迟了原定的北京之行，只是他的骗人话术。河北经贸大学尼泊尔研究中心吴玮老师将其翻译，供读者参考。
作者简介：帕拉苏拉姆·卡雷尔（Parsuram Kharel，简写为P. Kharel）系尼泊尔国家英文报纸《新兴尼泊尔报》前主编
今年二月美国天空上的中国“间谍气球”（中国民用的气象科研无人飞艇偏离了预定的航线进入美国领空被炒作为“间谍气球”，——译注）引发了轩然大波，只可惜没有检测到与谍报行为相关的仪器。美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯 (Antony Blinken) 在最后一刻推迟了原定的北京之行，这只美国上空的气球只是他的骗人话术。
对于这一事件，即使是其亲密盟友也并不同情美国。相反，分析人士和评论员对华盛顿追踪飞越其领土的外国物体的迟缓行为表示担忧。具有超级军事力量的美国应该在外国物体飞越其主权领土的瞬间注意到它。
同样不容忽视的是，美国每年1万亿美元的国防预算占世界武器总量的40%。漂流气球可能是中国在技术广泛普及的时代，不仅向美国而且向世界其他国家发出关于个人优势和弱点信息的方式。
大国已经开始声称自己有权窥探其他国家的事务——两面派却否认其他国家也有这个权利。这种反常现象可能不会让美国难堪。众所周知，美国政府会窥探本国公民和其他国家公民的隐私。曾为美国国家安全局（US National Security Agency）担任顾问的爱德华·斯诺登 (Edward Snowden)在2013年揭露了国家侵犯公民日常隐私的性质和范围。
多极世界
超级大国的实力渊源相似。如今，包括中国和俄罗斯在内的三个超级大国正在争夺全球经济和其他议程制定活动中的主导高地位。尽管中国是新兴大国，但美国和俄罗斯是二战后几十年中两个主要超级大国。1990 年代苏联解体后，俄罗斯的全球地位遭受了大约十年的挫折，但最终成功重新加入这个独家俱乐部。美国的全球战略在很大程度上是由遏制中国的愿望推动的。
人口统计学家一直在评估，美国的非白人人口成为多数需要多少年。同样，在许多西方国家，只有不到一半的人口信仰基督教，其余人属于其他宗教教派或没有宗教信仰。几十年来，传统大国习惯于在全球事务中扮演主导和霸权的角色。自信地认为，他们垄断世界、强迫所有人接受他们制定的世界秩序以及世界价值观。然而，现在时代的节奏不可避免地改变了。新千年显示出更快的步伐，21世纪20年代再次大声而清晰地让人类认识并不得不承认这一点。西方眼睁睁地看着自己的全球主导地位日渐式微，深感绝望。试图坚持霸权主义势必是和正在形成的多极结构背道而驰。这种导致战争的风险，远比许多人不愿公开承认的要糟糕得多。当前在创建和传播旨在让其他人相信的虚假信息内容方面所做的努力充分强调了这一点。
这种驱动力可能会在一段时间内对公众产生麻醉作用。因为选民相信，民主选举产生的代表和政府不会欺骗他们。这在过去发生过，并且会继续发生。问题是：能迷惑人们多长时间？ 民族优先不应该是少数国家的垄断，鼓吹主权独立国家不受外国压力的约束，同时设法对其他国家施加不当影响。装腔作势不会持续很长时间，也不会让人安心。
大国之间的战场包括代理人战争和源于“民主”框架口号所推动的经济剥削，也包括被迫接受大国强加的世界价值观和国家安全问题是或应该是什么的长期压力。这都是由权力大佬解读的。最终，该策略为其目标国和发起国招致争议和麻烦。朝鲜、越南、阿富汗、伊朗、叙利亚、委内瑞拉和叙利亚这些案例不仅考验自身漏洞，也暴露了大国的不安全因素。
进入 21 世纪第三个十年，传统主导大国制定的道路的世界秩序会渐渐瓦解。权力方程式正在发生变化。如果这还不是很清楚，未来十年应该可以让全球人口中持怀疑态度的人心服口服，这些长期以已经习惯于见证特定的秩序。
意识形态输出
为了自己的利益，小国应该在效仿大国的过程中发展“民族至上”的口号和实践能力。与志同道合的国家建立联系，不干涉他国事务，同时将维护国家利益作为首要任务，这应该会增加他们个人和集体的力量。最近一个时代变迁的例子就是欧佩克+引来了美国怒火。该组织由石油输出国组织和包括俄罗斯在内的盟友组成，同意在截至 2023 年底的几个月内削减每日石油产量。
人们正在对过去 500 年的帝国主义和殖民主义、经济剥削、奴隶贸易以及宣布和判断什么对全世界最好的垄断进行广泛的重新评估。对于那些以牺牲他人为代价而长期拥有它的人来说，这种改变是深感绝望的原因。随着形势开始转变，当过去被忽视的反常现象被赤裸裸地讨论时，传统的权力机构感到畏缩。事情不可能一夜之间改变，坚定的动力确实会在任何地方和任何年龄段改变路线。虽然挥之不去的疑虑和怀疑将继续存在，但事实证明，以崇高理想为生的自命不凡只是夸夸其谈，而不是实际观察到的。
原文：The West Not The Whole World
https://www.risingnepaldaily.com/news/24858
The Rising Nepal ,3 April 2023, page 4
Chinese “spy balloon” in the United States’ sky in February triggered a big fuss, except that no instrument related to espionage exercise was detected. US Foreign Secretary Antony Blinken postponed his planned trip to Beijing at the last minute, the balloon over the American sky being the ruse.
The incident did not draw much sympathy for the US even from its close allies. Instead, analysts and commentators expressed concern over the slow manner in which Washington was able to trace a foreign object flying over its territory. A military might of America’s stature should have noticed the foreign object moments after it flew over its sovereign territory.
Not to be overlooked is also that the US annual defence budget of $1 trillion accounts for 40 percent of world’s weapons in all related aspects. The drifting balloon might be China’s way of sending a message to not just the US but also to the rest of the world regarding individual strengths and vulnerabilities in an age of extensively accessible technology.
Big powers have come to arrogate themselves the right to snoop into the affairs of other countries — something double dealers deny others. The anomaly might not embarrass the US, where the government is known to snoop into the privacy of its own citizens and those of other countries. The whistle-blower Edward Snowden, who did consultant work for works for the US National Security Agency, spilled the beans in 2013 on the nature and scope of the state intruding into the daily privacies of citizens.
Multipolar world
Superpowers hail from the same cloth. Today, three superpowers, including also China and Russia, are battling for top roles in global economic and other agenda-setting activity. Whereas China is a newly arrived powerhouse, the US and Russia emerged as the two key superpower in the post-World War decades. Russia suffered a setback in its global status for about a decade in the 1990s in the wake of the Soviet Union’s disintegration before clawing its way back to the exclusive club. American global strategy is heavily fuelled by China containment desire.
Demographers have been assessing how many decades it might take for nonwhite population in the US to emerge as the majority. Likewise, less than half of the populations in much of the West profess Christianity while the rest belong to other religious denominations or none at all. Habituated to playing the dominant and domineering role in global affairs, traditional powers for several decades beamed with self-assurance that theirs would be the monopoly of defining, interpreting what world order should be and what world values are for all to embrace. Inevitably, the tempo changed course in recent times. It had to happen. The new millennium gave signs of a faster pace. The 2020s have reiterated so loud and clear for humanity to acknowledge it. The West is in deep despair as it sees its global dominance on the wane. Trying to hinge on hegemony is an anti-thesis of the inevitability of multipolar structure that is well in the making. It risks grave battles and events far worse than many are reluctant to admit in the open. This is amply underscored by current efforts at creating and circulating disinformation contents designed for others to hear believe.
Such drive might have narcotising effects on the general public for some time, eluded as it might be by the faith reposed in democratically elected representatives and government not to take voters up the garden path. This happened in the past and continues to recur. The question is: For how long? Nation first should not be the monopoly of a few in the fraternity of nations touting the case of sovereign independent nations not bound by foreign pressure while contriving to exert undue influence on others. Hug-and-bromance show won’t last long or reassure, except for formal trappings.
Battlegrounds for big powers include pathways like proxy war, economic exploitation emanating from agenda pushed forth by “democratic” frame chants; perennial pressure on accepting what world values and national security concerns are or should be. This is interpreted by the power bigwigs. Ultimately, the ploy chases controversy and courts trouble for its targets as well as the strategy initiators. North Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Venezuela and Syria are cases for assessing their frailties and vulnerabilities as well as those of also the bigger powers.
The world into the third decade of the 21st century disagrees with the definition that the world order should not steer away from the pathways laid down by the traditionally dominant powers. Power equations are changing shifting. If this is not already clear, the next decade should convince the doubting sections of the global populations, long used to having witnessed a specific order.
Ideology export
For their own interest, the lesser powers should develop capacities for saying and practising “nation-first” in emulation of the dominant powers. Forging ties with like-minded states that follow non-interference in the affairs of other states while upholding their national interests as top priorities should add to their individual as well as collective strengths. A recent example of the changing tide of the times was the US anger attracted by OPEC plus. Comprising the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, the grouping agreed to cut daily oil output for the months running through the end of 2023.
Extensive reappraisals are being made about the past 500 years of imperialism and colonialism, economic exploitation, slave trade and the monopoly of declaring and judging what is best for the whole world. The development is cause for deep despair for those having it so good for so long at the expense of others. As the tables start turning, the traditional powers cringe when the anomalies ignored in past are discussed thread bare. Things cannot change overnight. Determined drive does make the difference in course correction anywhere and in any age. Lingering doubts and suspicions will continue. But pretensions of living by lofty ideals prove to be rhetoric more often honoured in its breach than observed in practice.
